By J G Wraith
Using feedback-free estimates of the warming by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and observed rates of increase, we estimate that if the United States (U.S.) eliminated net CO2 emissions by the year 2050, this would avert a warming of 0.0084 C (0.015 F), which is below our ability to accurately measure. If the entire world forced net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050, a warming of only 0.070 C (0.13 F) would be averted. If one assumes that the warming is a factor of 4 larger because of positive feedback, as asserted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the warming averted by a net zero U.S. policy would still be very small, 0.034 C (0.061 F). For worldwide net zero emissions by 2050 and the 4-times larger IPCC climate sensitivity, the averted warming would be 0.28 C (0.50 F).
—R. Lindzen, W. Happer and W. A. van Wijngaarden 1)
If the entire world forced net zero CO2 emissions by the year 2050, a warming of only 0.070 C (0.13 F), without feedback would be averted. The UK’s share of the world’s aversion of warming by net zero emissions without feedback would therefore be 0.00057 0C or 0.000022 0C/annum.
With the four times IPCC climate sensitivity the total global aversion of warming would be 0.28 0C, the UK’s share of which would be 0.0023 0C or 0.000088 0C per annum.
Therefore, is averting 0.000022 ºC global warming / annum by the UK’s CO2 sufficient justification for the UK taxpayers to pay nearly £10.35 billion/annum on subsidising UK renewable energy which has already cost us over £227 billion since 2002?
A significant proportion of which are subsidies for producing nothing!
According to Our World in Data, in 2024, the worldwide CO2 emission was 38.6 billion tons, for the USA it was 4.9 billion tons and for the UK, it was 312.9 million tons.
Hence the UK’s proportion of the total global CO2 emissions would be; 312.9 x 106 ÷ 38.6 x 109 = 8.106 x 10-3 = 0.008106.
The UK’s share of the world’s aversion of warming by net zero emissions without feedback would be 0.070 0C x 0.008106 = 0.00057 0C. But that is the total temperature reduction over the next 26 years, giving us an average temp reduction of 0.000022 0C / annum.
With the four times IPCC climate sensitivity the total global aversion of warming would be 0.28 0C, the UK’s share of which would be 0.28 0C x 0.008106 = 0.0023 0C or 0.0000872 0C / annum.
The magnificent subsidy clock above has been compiled by Richard Lyon, MSc, Meng, Beng and shows the subsidies UK taxpayers have paid for renewable energy from 2002 to date, corrected to 2024 values. This diagram therefore shows that so far, just the subsidies for renewals, has been costing UK taxpayers £10.35 billion/annum, to try and reduce the UK’s global warming effect of 0.00057 0C or 0.000022 0C per annum.
Compare Professor Happer’s figure of 0.07 0C by 2050, which (from 2024) extrapolates to 0.205 0C by the end of the century with the predictions by 383 out of 843 lead authors of the IPCC’s reports for their estimate of the how much human global warming there would be at the end of the century, i.e. 75 years away. 2) The so-called IPCC’s expert’s answers ranged from 1.5 ºC to 5 ºC. Hardly a “consensus” even within the IPCC and all wildly incorrect.
It should be noted that the climate activists do not commit themselves to providing any technical figures to justify their claims of doom and destruction. Typically, Ed Milliband refused to quote figures for the effect of net zero policies on the global temperature in parliament, even when asked for this numerous times by Lee Anderson, Reform MP. Clearly, giving a figure invites questions on how it was arrived at!
So, the climate activists resort to so-called natural disasters such as floods, hurricanes, sea level rises, heat waves and wild fires as confirmation of an impending climate crisis. The MSM and government agencies such as the UK’s Met Office, the universities, BBC, Sky news, The Guardian and other newspapers all allegedly promote any or all natural events as confirming the scam that is the climate crisis. These claims can all be refuted by the facts but are routinely ignored by them and corrections are rarely, if ever published by them.
The graph compares the total CO2 production of the UK compared just to China’s output. (Note that the total world emissions will raise the total to over 38 billion tons.) Now consider that the strategically important steel manufacturing facility in Port Talbot was closed down to save just 1.8% of the UK’s CO2 output. On the graph this is about one pin prick below the UK’s curve. Hence, to save this derisory insignificant amount the main political parties are quite happy to imperil the country by destroying the strategically important steel industry and putting 2,500 highly skilled Welsh steelworkers out of a job, plus many others who were involved in the manufacturing process.
To compensate for the loss of our steel works, the UK is now buying steel from China which is probably producing its steel from furnaces powered by coal powered generating stations. It also has to be imported the 15,000+ miles by sea from China in fossil fuel guzzling cargo ships What stupidity is that when we have ample reserves of coal in Wales and redundant highly qualified steel workers?
References:
1) arXiv:2406.07392 [physics.ao-ph], submitted by William van Wijngaarden, 11 Jun 2024
2) Ben Pile reported in The Daily Sceptic, 13th May 2024, that The Guardian recently published its survey of ‘climate experts’ estimates of the temperature increase by the end of the century.
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